The Bhutto Assassination and the "Cognetic Effect"

Benazir Bhutto’s assassination on 27 Dec 2007 set off psychological shockwaves that rapidly propagated around the world aided by transnational TV and the Internet.

The shockwaves delivered a mental blitzkrieg attack measured not in explosive weight but in the weight of perception.

(Click graphic for better view)

Initial reports from Pakistan: ( “Tonight Pakistan said it has “intelligence intercepts” indicating that al Qaeda was behind the killing of opposition leader Mrs. Bhutto. The Interior ministry said today there is "irrefutable evidence" that Al-Qaeda is trying to destabilise the country. “—the Sun)

Snop's Commentary:

Regardless of who is responsible, the “Cognetic Effect” of this attack is palpable from Rawalpindi to London- Washington and beyond.

News aggregators like Buzztracker (featured in the graphic w/ modifications) and Newsmap are useful in creating a visual depiction of the news. Even though both are limited scope, they help us visualize the relationship of major news stories to points around the world and provide a sense of what the “weight of perception” looks like.

“Weight of perception” as introduced Dawn of the Cognetic Age:

“Unable to attack the United States directly since 9/11, al-Qaeda uses global media to bypass the strength of our homeland defenses, follow the path of least resistance through our open society, and attack our psychological center of gravity."

"Because we do not censor the Internet or transnational television, images of death and destruction from terror attacks speed unimpeded (like Germany’s tanks and aircraft) across the flat plains of the global media directly to our TV screens and computer monitors, delivering a mental blitzkrieg attack measured not in explosive weight but in the weight of perception.”

Ask A Terrorist: (Al Qaeda's evolving Cognetic weapon)

A 9/11 mastermind invites journalists for an online chat? Behind Al Qaeda's latest publicity tactic. By Vivian Salama Newsweek Web Exclusive Dec 20, 2007 (read the full article)

Al Qaeda's exploitation of Cognetics via the Internet is evolving once again. This time the group is offering journalists direct access to its #2 man (Ayman al-Zawahiri) in attempt to directly influence Western audiences.

Zawahiri's invitation, as featured on a jihadi Web site identified as 'Al Qaeda Muslims Morocco Islamic'

In the statement, released Dec. 16, Zawahiri invites "individuals, agencies and all media" to submit written questions via one of As-Sahaab's Web forums. He calls upon the "brothers" who supervise the site "to collect the questions and transmit them without alteration, whether it is coming from someone who agrees or disagrees."

This is the first time Al Qaeda has made a formal call to journalists, although it will not be the first time the radical Islamic group has granted interviews to Western media. Counterterrorism experts believe that the posting is genuine and that it is part of Al Qaeda's evolving tactics to use the Web as part of its propaganda arsenal.

"This is a continuation of the efforts by Al Qaeda's senior leadership to push themselves forward in the public viewpoint," says Maj. Reid Sawyer, editor of "Terrorism and Counterterrorism" and a lecturer of terrorism studies at Columbia University.

Recent messages from both Osama bin Laden and Zawahiri have specifically called on Americans to embrace Islam and turn against the governments they deem to be enemies of Islam. Counterterrorism analysts say the offer of an online exchange with Zawahiri is part of its broader emphasis on connecting with new audiences.

"While Al Qaeda has its own media institutions, it well understands that Western audiences don't necessarily tune into those sources of information," says Sawyer. "Because of that, this allows them to reach Western audiences and it gives them some degree of legitimacy in terms of who the interviews are conducted with."

The strategy guiding jihadist Internet use was demonstrated when Al Qaeda's Saudi Arabian network, Muaskar al-Battar (Camp of the Sword), launched its Web site in January 2004. Its introductory message read: "In order to join the greatest training camps, you don't have to travel to other lands. Alone, in your home or with a group of your brothers, you too can begin to execute the training program.

You can all join the Al-Battar Training Camps." Jarret Brachman, a former CIA analyst now in the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point describes this as playing to the YouTube generation. "It completely fits Al Qaeda's communications strategy over the past two years, which is how to get people more invested in the movement."

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Snop's Commentary:

According to Dr. Chet Richard's ,the late Col John R. Boyd USAF (Ret) believed a sensible grand strategy relies on a number of factors, which include:

Pump[ing]-up our resolve, drain[ing]-away our adversary's resolve, and attract[ing] the uncommitted.

"Grand strategy seeks to "influence the uncommitted or potential adversaries so that they are drawn towards our philosophy and are empathetic toward our success." If they choose to join our cause, great; but at the very least they should refrain from any actions that furnish comfort, support, or information to our adversaries.'

Al Qaeda's new global media delivery platforms are zeroing in on attracting support from the uncommitted in the West by dealing directly with those who will present Al Qaeda's side of the story.

What are we in the West doing to not only attract the uncommited in the Muslim world but what about the uncommited in Europe, the US and elsewhere?

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From Dawn of the Cognetic Age:

"We must ask tough questions to determine whether our policies promote or hinder our ability to maintain the vital support of the American people and our allies for conducting a long war. Our leadership plainly states that we are engaged in such a war, possibly lasting a generation or longer. Our grand strategy must reflect this basic assumption.

Therefore, policy objectives must bolster our resolve to continue the struggle, attract the uncommitted to our side, and drain away militants’ resolve to continue the struggle. If our policies support the objectives, we should stay with them; if they do not, we must change them."

Gates: War on terror needs more [soft power] (Cognetics Applied)

Defense Secretary Robert Gates addresses the crowd during a Landon Lecture at Kansas State University in Manhattan, Kansas on 26 Nov 2007. (Read the full article)

Sec Gates makes a number of salient points that can be addressed by applying Cognetic thinking to develop a way to take on al-Qaeda ideologically.

Defeating terrorism will require the use of more “soft power,” with civilians contributing more in non-military areas like communication, economic assistance and political development, Pentagon chief Robert Gates said Monday.

“Based on my experience serving seven presidents, as a former director of CIA and now as secretary of defense, I am here to make the case for strengthening our capacity to use ‘soft’ power and for better integrating it with ‘hard’ power,” Gates said.

The lesson, Gates said, is that nontraditional conflict — against insurgents, guerrillas and terrorists — will be the mainstay of battlefields for years to come, requiring more than military power.

“Success will be less a matter of imposing one’s will and more a function of shaping behavior — of friends, adversaries and, most importantly, the people in between,” Gates told his audience of students, faculty and local residents.

In his speech, Gates said there is an urgent need to figure out how to better organize the government to meet the security challenges of the 21st century. Among shortcomings in the non-military area, Gates singled out U.S. strategic communications. He said the U.S. government is “miserable” at communicating its goals and policies to foreign audiences.

“It is just plain embarrassing that al-Qaida is better at communicating its message on the Internet than America,” he said. “Speed, agility and cultural relevance are not terms that come readily to mind when discussing U.S. strategic communications.”

Snop's Commentary:

In summary, Sec Gates is saying that to effectively deal with long term "non-traditional conflicts", we need to shift our emphasis from (hard power) to (soft power). This entails bolstering our ability to shape behavior by effectively communicating with audiences that are key to achieving our long term security goals.

Sec Gates is articulating the thoughts held by many but acted on by few.

So what are we missing? Why can't we engage effectively?

We lack a common operating picture or a shared, systematic way to conceptualize, communicate, and carry out this type of ideological war which requires employing (soft power) effectively.

Cognetics fills this void and gives us a way to employ (soft power) as a maneuver weapon capable of mass influence. Currently, Al-Qaeda's makes effective use of the Internet and Transnational TV as a weaponized form of strategic communications. Its time to learn from them and begin taking their advantage away. (Ref Air & Space and Power Journal Winter 2007 pp. 102-104 . note: reading the full article will help you understand following section better)

Cognetics is based on five principles of maneuver warfare:

Principle One: Speed and Surprise to Pit Strength against Weakness

Principle Two: Tempo

Principle Three: Decentralized Control

Principle Four: Fingerspitzengefuhl (Intuitively knowing the best time to act)

Principle Five: Schwerpunkt (Center of Gravity or focus of Effort)

In terms of cognetics, successfully applying these principles requires first knowing the Schwerpunkt to bring a decentralized group together for a common cause. Once each independent element of the group understands the focus of effort, it is free to act according to the on-scene commander’s feel for the situation (Fingerspitzengefuhl).

Doing so helps the entire enterprise achieve harmony of action, allowing on-scene commanders to take the initiative, control tempo, and maximize speed and surprise to pit strength against weakness when opportunities present themselves.

In today’s relentless media environment, employing these principles will enable national-security policy makers to first see and understand the contours and dynamics of the Cognetic Age. Once they understand, they will find themselves in a better position to mitigate cognetic effects and employ cognetic thinking to wage ideological warfare.

How can the US Government its allies and citizenry use this thinking to formulate a way to engage al-Qaeda at the same game? I'd like to offer four broad courses of action to consider.

1) The President acts as the lead communicator backed up by each government agency that can best service each audience set harmonizing them all with Cognetics so they all have the same conceptual picture and language to carryout ideological warfare.

2) The President acts as the lead communicator backed up by a flat task force with representatives from each government agency empowered with the ability to quickly communicate themes and messages when opportunities arise. Harmonizing them all with Cognetics so they all have the same conceptual picture and language to carryout ideological warfare.

3) The President acts as the lead communicator backed up a decentralized constellation of like minded individuals inside and outside the government well placed to create the desired audience effects. Harmonizing them all with Cognetics so they all have the same conceptual picture and language to carryout ideological warfare.

4) No leader, start a mass movement of like minded people (Think climate change). Need principles that resonate like those at our founding (same principles?? Maybe.. maybe not), Carryout a influence campaign with the precision and intensity of a Presidential campaign. Harmonizing them all with Cognetics so they all have the same conceptual picture and language to carryout ideological warfare.

Tell me what you think...

Is the Battle Field Moving to Europe?

On 29 Nov 07 Bin Laden released his lastest audio tape.

Walid Phares makes the observation that Al Qaeda is "preparing the psychological terrain for an escalation on European soil". The Washington Times carried his OpEd article titled Osama Targets Europe on the 6th of Dec 07. Its worth a read because it makes the case for a shift in Al Qaeda's efforts from Iraq to mainland Europe.

Click here to read the full translation of Bin Laden's message courtesy of the http://www.nefafoundation.org/.

Here are some highlights from the Phares article:

"In this tape, he is asking the Europeans to leave the battlefield of Afghanistan now, as events are expanding further on their continent. The hidden message in his speech is by far greater than the words aired on al Jazeera."

"The message says the Soviet occupation has failed, and so will Americans and Europeans in Afghanistan. He "reminded them" of the tremendous mistake they made by assisting U.S. troops in dislodging the Taliban in 2001. "I am responsible for the attacks of 9/11," said bin Laden, thus "he" was the man behind the massacre of Manhattan, not the Taliban. He added — the classic refrain — that "it was in response to aggression in Palestine and Lebanon." U.S. spokesmen rushed to "explain" that the Afghans are "happier now because they are better administered."

"The regime was removed because it was responsible for the massacres of al Qaeda in New York and Washington. The Taliban had the opportunity to dismantle the group but didn't. The Greater Middle East must hear solid counterarguments coming out of America and the free world, not "explanations" about the coalition's governance in Afghanistan."

"A strong response to these false arguments, delivered in Arabic via satellite channels, should have been the appropriate response. What is important is not how we satisfy our perception of good image, but how we affect the perception of those who are about to be recruited on the other side. "

"The forthcoming attacks are being prepared now with al Qaeda propaganda mentioning former and current British Prime Ministers Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, Spanish President Jose Maria Aznar and French President Nicolas Sarkozy. What links all these leaders in the mind of bin Laden? It is not only the past; rather it is the future. The supreme commander knows global jihad has begun in that continent. Salafists have already waged violence in Europe and the so-called youth gangs in France's suburbs — manipulated by the radical clerics — are at war with the French state. Al Qaeda wants to claim it, own it and boast about it. That's what is on bin Laden's mind."

Snop's Commentary:

From a Cognetic point of view, Bin Laden is setting the stage to pit the strength of media amplified violence against a weakening Europe. A Europe that lacks a central unifying principle or ideology needed to counteract the determined Salafist's and their bloody interpretation of Islam. Osama wants to peal back the onion and pit Europe against America, European nations against one another and the islands of Muslim angst against a sea of secular indifference throughout the continent. See Dawn of the Cognetic Age: Looking through the lens page 104 for a better explanation and Bin Laden Attempting to Strip US Allies from the Anti-Terrorism Coalition.

Join the Discussion

This Blog is for anyone interested in exploring ways to counter the ability of groups like Al Qaeda and Hezbollah to effectively manipulate the opinions and behaviors of people world-wide through the sophisticated use of global media.